Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-30.
Consensus treats 2026 as a reset year: revenue still grows about 1%, but normalized EPS is set at $8.12 against the $8.64 delivered in 2025, with EBITDA and gross margin down alongside it. Recovery is deferred to 2027-28, with consensus EPS reaching $10.02 by FY2028. Underneath that the tape has been drifting apart: FY2027 EPS is roughly 2% lower than six months ago while FY2028 has edged up, and revenue estimates have slipped under 1% in both years. Revenue has missed in all eight quarters on record, though the last two prints beat on EPS.
Revenue has missed consensus in all eight reported quarters; EPS beat in seven of the eight
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 8 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $4.73bn | $4.67bn | -1.1% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.58 | $1.79 | +13.5% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $4.90bn | $4.90bn | -0.1% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.90 | $1.99 | +4.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $5.35bn | $4.92bn | -8.0% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.65 | $2.04 | -22.9% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $5.20bn | $5.20bn | -0.1% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.43 | $2.47 | +1.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $4.84bn | $4.79bn | -1.0% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.07 | $2.14 | +3.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $4.96bn | $4.90bn | -1.1% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.48 | $2.51 | +1.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $4.91bn | $4.88bn | -0.4% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.26 | $2.30 | +1.6% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $4.81bn | $4.79bn | -0.3% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.10 | $2.13 | +1.4% | Beat |
FY2026 is a reset year: EPS set at $8.12 against $8.64 delivered, on about 1% revenue growth
EBITDA and gross margin fall with EPS in FY2026 while revenue grows; gross margin drops to 59.3% from 61.2% and does not regain that level until FY2029 on the current tape. Coverage thins sharply in the outer years - FY2029 rests on four revenue estimates and two for EBITDA.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.81bn | $20.04bn | $20.85bn | $21.63bn | $22.55bn | — | 27 | $19.71bn / $19.89bn |
| EBITDA | $9.21bn | $8.67bn | $8.99bn | $9.34bn | $9.38bn | — | 20 | $8.80bn / $9.53bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $8.56 | $8.12 | $8.93 | $10.02 | $11.62 | — | 36 | $8.49 / $8.65 |
| Gross margin | 61.2% | 59.3% | 60.1% | 60.8% | 61.5% | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $4.31bn | $3.88bn | $4.28bn | $4.68bn | $4.15bn | — | — | — |
FY2027 EPS trimmed about 2% over six months while FY2028 edged up almost 3%; revenue flat in both
Little has moved in the last 30 days; the divergence is a six-month drift. Revenue for both years is down under 1% over that span, so what is changing sits in earnings rather than the top line.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $9.15 | $9.02 | $8.95 | $8.93 | -0.9% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $9.75 | $10.00 | $10.06 | $10.02 | +0.2% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $20.98bn | $20.92bn | $20.86bn | $20.85bn | -0.3% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $21.74bn | $21.79bn | $21.64bn | $21.63bn | -0.7% |
The street converges on adjusted FY2026 EPS and splits widely on GAAP earnings
Thirty-seven analysts sit inside a $7.69-$8.29 band on FY2026 normalized EPS, while twenty-two put FY2026 GAAP net income anywhere from $2,385m to $3,483m. The FY2028 normalized EPS range is the widest on the forward tape.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2026E | $8.12 | $7.69–$8.29 | 7.4% | 37 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2026E | $3.00bn | $2.38bn–$3.48bn | 36.6% | 22 |
| EPS (GAAP) | FY2026E | $5.72 | $4.70–$6.36 | 29.0% | 17 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2027E | $3.37bn | $2.70bn–$3.85bn | 34.2% | 22 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $10.02 | $8.62–$11.18 | 25.5% | 20 |
Hold-rated by most of the street, with targets running from $40 to $115
Twenty-five rated analysts sit at Hold against six Buy and three Outperform. The mean target of $66.63 sits above the $63 median, pulled up by the high end of a 27-target sample.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 6, Outperform 3, Hold 25, Underperform 1, Sell 1 | 36 |
| Consensus score | 2.67 | 36 |
| Target price | mean $66.63; median $63.00; high $115.0; low $40.00 | 27 |
Outer-year coverage thins by roughly half - treat FY2028 and FY2029 as directional
FY2026 carries 28 revenue estimates and 37 for normalized EPS; by FY2028 those fall to 15 and 20, and FY2029 has four and five. Outer-year momentum therefore reflects a shifting, smaller panel as much as changed views.