CapIQ
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-31.
Consensus puts FY26 normalized EPS at $8.12, about 6% below the $8.64 actually earned in FY25, with revenue growth troughing near 1%. The tape has been resetting since the September-2025 quarter, when revenue landed 8.0% below consensus and normalized EPS 22.9% below — the only real break in a record where revenue has missed in all eight quarters captured. FY27 estimates have drifted down about 2% over six months while FY28 has firmed. The recovery the street models, $11.62 of normalized EPS by FY29, rests on five estimates.
FY26 is a down year: EPS consensus sits 6% below FY25's actual before a modeled climb to $11.62 by FY29
Revenue growth troughs near 1% in FY26 and settles around 4% thereafter, while normalized EPS falls first and then compounds faster than revenue. Consensus EBITDA does not regain its FY25 level until FY28, and gross margin bottoms at 59.3% in FY26 before working back to 61.5% by FY29. The shape is a reset year followed by a modeled margin recovery, with the FY29 column resting on a handful of estimates.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.81bn | $20.04bn | $20.85bn | $21.63bn | $22.55bn | — | 27 | $19.71bn / $19.89bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $8.56 | $8.12 | $8.93 | $10.02 | $11.62 | — | 36 | $8.49 / $8.65 |
| EBITDA | $9.21bn | $8.67bn | $8.99bn | $9.34bn | $9.38bn | — | 20 | $8.80bn / $9.53bn |
| Gross margin | 61.2% | 59.3% | 60.1% | 60.8% | 61.5% | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $4.31bn | $3.88bn | $4.28bn | $4.68bn | $4.15bn | — | — | — |
Revenue has missed consensus in all eight quarters on record; normalized EPS beat in seven of eight
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 8 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $4.73bn | $4.67bn | -1.1% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $1.58 | $1.79 | +13.5% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $4.90bn | $4.90bn | -0.1% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $1.90 | $1.99 | +4.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $5.35bn | $4.92bn | -8.0% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.65 | $2.04 | -22.9% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $5.20bn | $5.20bn | -0.1% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.43 | $2.47 | +1.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $4.84bn | $4.79bn | -1.0% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $2.07 | $2.14 | +3.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $4.96bn | $4.90bn | -1.1% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.48 | $2.51 | +1.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $4.91bn | $4.88bn | -0.4% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.26 | $2.30 | +1.6% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $4.81bn | $4.79bn | -0.3% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $2.10 | $2.13 | +1.4% | Beat |
FY27 EPS estimates have slipped 2.3% in six months while FY28 has firmed 2.8%
Revenue estimates for both years have moved less than 1% in either direction over 180 days, so what revision there is sits in the earnings line, not the top line. The FY27 drift is steady rather than abrupt: down 0.1% over 30 days, 0.9% over 90, 2.3% over 180.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $9.15 | $9.02 | $8.95 | $8.93 | -0.9% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $9.75 | $10.00 | $10.06 | $10.02 | +0.2% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $20.98bn | $20.92bn | $20.86bn | $20.85bn | -0.3% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $21.74bn | $21.79bn | $21.64bn | $21.63bn | -0.7% |
Normalized EPS is tightly held; GAAP earnings are where the street actually disagrees
FY26 normalized EPS clusters closely across 37 estimates, yet GAAP net income for the same year is proportionally the widest row in the near-term tape on 22 estimates. Outer-year rows widen further as coverage thins, so treat the FY28 normalized EPS range as a thinner-panel spread rather than a sharper debate.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2026E | $8.12 | $7.69–$8.29 | 7.4% | 37 |
| Net income (GAAP) | FY2026E | $3.00bn | $2.38bn–$3.48bn | 36.6% | 22 |
| EPS (GAAP) | FY2027E | $6.60 | $5.38–$7.41 | 30.8% | 18 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $10.02 | $8.62–$11.18 | 25.5% | 20 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | $21.63bn | $20.16bn–$22.16bn | 9.2% | 15 |
25 analysts sit at hold, and price targets span $40 to $115
The consensus recommendation score is 2.67, and the mean target of $66.63 sits above the median of $63, so a small group of high targets pulls the average up. The $40 low and $115 high are a measure of disagreement, not of value: this feed carries no current share price.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 6, Outperform 3, Hold 25, Underperform 1, Sell 1 | 36 |
| Consensus score | 2.67 | 36 |
| Target price | mean $66.63; median $63.00; high $115.0; low $40.00 | 27 |
Coverage thins fast: FY29 rests on 5 EPS estimates and a two-analyst EBITDA
FY26 and FY27 each carry 37 normalized EPS estimates; FY28 drops to 20 and FY29 to 5, with FY29 revenue on 4 and FY29 EBITDA a two-analyst mean. Read the outer-year climb as the view of a few early modellers, not a settled consensus.