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Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 25 brokers · 428 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-24.

Models trough organic growth at -2.9% in 2QFY-2026, then snap back to +4.9% the next quarter

The swing is concentrated in Financial solutions, modeled at -6.47% organic in 2QFY-2026 and +3.79% in 3QFY-2026; Merchant is steadier, 1.04% to 5.72%. Margins move with it — Merchant operating margin 30.85% in 2QFY-2026 against 34.88% in 3QFY-2026 — so the recovery is a single-quarter step in the models rather than a gradual build, and it is the cleanest thing to test against the next print.

Line 3QFY-2025A 4QFY-2025A 1QFY-2026A 2QFY-2026A 3QFY-2026E 4QFY-2026E 1QFY-2027E 2QFY-2027E Brokers
Organic growth — — — — — — — — —
Organic revenue - Growth rate - Operating(%) 9.3% -0.4% -1.9% -2.9% 4.9% 6.1% 4.5% 4.6% 18
Organic revenue - Growth rate - Merchant solutions - Operating(%) 12.5% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 5.7% 7.4% 5.6% 5.5% 19
Organic revenue - Growth rate - Financial solutions - Operating(%) 6.0% -2.3% -5.2% -6.5% 3.8% 4.3% 3.3% 3.3% 20
Operating margin — — — — — — — — —
Operating margin(%) 40.6% 35.1% 29.7% 32.9% 35.1% 36.1% 30.7% 33.9% 24
Operating margin - Merchant solutions - Operating(%) 37.0% 34.1% 28.6% 30.9% 34.9% 34.8% 28.5% 31.8% 17
Operating margin - Financial solutions - Operating(%) 49.0% 43.2% 39.0% 41.1% 41.8% 43.4% 39.1% 41.9% 19

Clover is the modeled product engine — revenue +12.7% in FY-2027 on a rising take rate; Carat is barely credited

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Clover revenue — — — — — —
Revenue - Clover $3.27bn $3.61bn $4.07bn $4.59bn +10.5% 12
Revenue - Clover - Software and services $823.02m $980.33m $1.16bn $1.39bn +19.1% 5
Revenue - Clover - Payment $2.11bn $2.25bn $2.49bn $2.62bn +6.8% 5
Revenue - Clover - Hardware $521.03m $440.25m $450.15m $564.96m -15.5% 4
Clover unit drivers — — — — — —
GPV - Clover($B) $327.23bn $358.13bn $394.20bn $430.18bn +9.4% 11
Take rate - Clover(%) 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% +0.0pt 10
Other products — — — — — —
Revenue - Carat $895.40m $846.83m $933.11m $961.18m -5.4% 3

Key drivers

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Merchant solutions — — — — — —
Revenue - Merchant solutions - Small business - Operating $6.79bn $7.05bn $7.48bn $7.91bn +3.8% 16
Revenue - Merchant solutions - Enterprise - Operating $2.29bn $2.35bn $2.45bn $2.53bn +2.7% 16
Revenue - Merchant solutions - Processing - Operating $1.07bn $1.06bn $1.08bn $1.08bn -1.1% 16
Financial solutions — — — — — —
Revenue - Financial solutions - Issuing - Operating $3.30bn $3.23bn $3.34bn $3.48bn -2.3% 17
Revenue - Financial solutions - Digital payments - Operating $3.92bn $3.92bn $4.05bn $4.18bn +0.1% 17
Revenue - Financial solutions - Banking - Operating $2.42bn $2.42bn $2.46bn $2.50bn -0.2% 17

Brokers cluster tightly on FY-2026 and split on FY-2028 Merchant economics and the buyback

Line Period Median Q1–Q3 Min–max Brokers
Operating margin - Merchant solutions - Operating(%) FY-2028E 34.2% 32.6%–34.7% 27.5%–36.0% 9
Revenue - Merchant solutions - Small business - Operating FY-2028E $8.06bn $7.90bn–$8.17bn $6.64bn–$8.29bn 10
Revenue - Clover FY-2028E $4.71bn $4.56bn–$4.82bn $3.58bn–$5.13bn 6
Share repurchase amount FY-2027E $2.00bn $1.44bn–$2.12bn $854.00m–$3.60bn 15
Adjusted free cash flow (FCF) FY-2028E $4.51bn $4.42bn–$4.66bn $3.89bn–$5.38bn 11

Key drivers

Line FY-2025A FY-2026E FY-2027E FY-2028E YoY Brokers
Capital return — — — — — —
Share repurchase amount $6.09bn $924.05m $1.88bn $2.20bn -84.8% 17
Number of shares repurchased(K#) 35.93m Number 15.60m Number 28.95m Number 27.96m Number -56.6% 16
Weighted average shares outstanding, Diluted(M#) 549.24m Number 530.22m Number 510.24m Number 484.82m Number -3.5% 25
Cash — — — — — —
Adjusted free cash flow (FCF) $4.28bn $3.84bn $4.21bn $4.55bn -10.3% 18
Adjusted free cash flow per share($) $7.71 $7.32 $8.36 $9.68 -5.0% 6
Leverage — — — — — —
Net debt $28.18bn $26.03bn $24.33bn $22.89bn -7.6% 19
Net debt / EBITDA, TTM(x) 3.05 Ratio 3.00 Ratio 2.68 Ratio 2.39 Ratio -1.8% 19

The most differentiated lines are also the thinnest, and outer-year coverage drops away

Clover revenue is carried by 12 brokers in FY-2025 but only 6 in FY-2028, and its hardware, payment and software splits by two to five; Merchant operating margin thins from 16 brokers in FY-2026 to 9 in FY-2028. The geographic split (Revenue - International, Revenue - U.S. and Canada) has a single broker and is left off this page. Forward-year cells were refreshed 2026-07-24, while FY-2025 cells mostly carry January-February 2026 revision dates.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.