Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 25 brokers · 428 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-24.
Broker models treat FY-2026 as Fiserv's reset year and FY-2027 as the recovery: total organic growth troughs at 1.2% before returning to 4.1%, and operating margin falls from 37.4% to 33.6% before clawing back only part of it. The turn is not gradual — the median model has organic growth going from -2.9% in 2QFY-2026 to +5.0% in 3QFY-2026, so the thesis gets tested almost immediately. Clover is what the models are paying for; Financial Solutions is what they are waiting on. The disagreement that matters is not on EPS, where 24 brokers sit in a narrow band, but on the segment profit pool and the pace of the buyback.
Organic growth swings from -2.9% in 2QFY-2026 to +5.0% in 3QFY-2026 — the models front-load the recovery
The turn is modeled as broad rather than concentrated: Banking, Issuing and Merchant processing all sit negative in 2QFY-2026 and all are positive by 3QFY-2026. Nothing in the reported quarters yet supports it, so this is the single assumption most exposed to the next print.
| Line | 3QFY-2025A | 4QFY-2025A | 1QFY-2026A | 2QFY-2026A | 3QFY-2026E | 4QFY-2026E | 1QFY-2027E | 2QFY-2027E | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Organic revenue - Growth rate - Operating(%) | 9.3% | -0.4% | -1.9% | -2.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 18 |
| Merchant solutions | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Organic revenue - Growth rate - Merchant solutions - Operating(%) | 12.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 19 |
| Organic revenue - Growth rate - Merchant solutions - Small business - Operating(%) | 13.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 14 |
| Organic revenue - Growth rate - Merchant solutions - Processing - Operating(%) | 4.1% | -6.3% | -1.5% | -7.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 14 |
| Financial solutions | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Organic revenue - Growth rate - Financial solutions - Operating(%) | 6.0% | -2.3% | -5.2% | -6.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 20 |
| Organic revenue - Growth rate - Financial solutions - Banking - Operating(%) | 0.9% | -4.3% | -5.3% | -5.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 13 |
| Organic revenue - Growth rate - Financial solutions - Issuing - Operating(%) | 8.7% | 1.7% | -4.4% | -8.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 12 |
Key drivers
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Merchant solutions - Operating | $10.16bn | $10.47bn | $11.00bn | $11.52bn | +3.0% | 23 |
| Revenue - Financial solutions - Operating | $9.65bn | $9.58bn | $9.86bn | $10.16bn | -0.7% | 24 |
| Clover | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GPV - Clover($B) | $327.23bn | $358.13bn | $394.20bn | $430.18bn | +9.4% | 11 |
| Take rate - Clover(%) | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | +0.0pt | 10 |
| Revenue - Clover | $3.27bn | $3.61bn | $4.07bn | $4.59bn | +10.5% | 12 |
| Revenue - Clover - Software and services | $823.02m | $980.33m | $1.16bn | $1.39bn | +19.1% | 5 |
| Revenue - Clover - Payment | $2.11bn | $2.25bn | $2.49bn | $2.62bn | +6.8% | 5 |
| Revenue - Clover - Hardware | $521.03m | $440.25m | $450.15m | $564.96m | -15.5% | 4 |
| Carat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Carat | $895.40m | $846.83m | $933.11m | $961.18m | -5.4% | 3 |
Margins reset harder than revenue: Financial Solutions operating margin 45.5% to 41.1%, back only to 41.7%
Financial Solutions never regains its FY-2025 operating-income level in the median model, even by FY-2028; Merchant solutions does, by FY-2027. Adjusted free cash flow per share recovers a year ahead of the dollars, because the share count is shrinking underneath it.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin - Merchant solutions - Operating(%) | 35.0% | 31.9% | 32.7% | 33.2% | -3.1pt | 17 |
| Operating margin - Financial solutions - Operating(%) | 45.6% | 41.0% | 41.8% | 41.2% | -4.6pt | 19 |
| Segment profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income/(loss) - Merchant solutions - Operating | $3.56bn | $3.34bn | $3.59bn | $3.81bn | -6.2% | 17 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Financial solutions - Operating | $4.40bn | $3.93bn | $4.13bn | $4.19bn | -10.6% | 19 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Corporate and other - New - Operating | $-551.78m | $-561.62m | $-554.25m | $-519.17m | -1.8% | 19 |
| Group margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating margin(%) | 37.4% | 33.5% | 34.2% | 34.9% | -3.9pt | 24 |
| EBITDA margin(%) | 46.5% | 43.4% | 43.6% | 44.1% | -3.1pt | 23 |
| Group cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adjusted free cash flow (FCF) | $4.28bn | $3.84bn | $4.21bn | $4.55bn | -10.3% | 18 |
| Adjusted free cash flow per share($) | $7.71 | $7.32 | $8.36 | $9.68 | -5.0% | 6 |
The real dispute is the FY-2027 profit pool and how much stock gets bought back
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income/(loss) - Merchant solutions - Operating | FY-2027E | $3.58bn | $3.51bn–$3.69bn | $2.88bn–$4.09bn | 16 |
| Operating income/(loss) - Financial solutions - Operating | FY-2027E | $4.11bn | $4.02bn–$4.20bn | $3.75bn–$4.95bn | 19 |
| Share repurchase amount | FY-2027E | $2.00bn | $1.44bn–$2.12bn | $854.00m–$3.60bn | 15 |
| Revenue - Clover | FY-2028E | $4.71bn | $4.56bn–$4.82bn | $3.58bn–$5.13bn | 6 |
The most differentiated lines here are also the thinnest — Clover's product split sits on 2-5 brokers
Group P&L lines carry 22 to 24 brokers through FY-2027, but Clover's hardware, payment and software splits are modeled by 2-5 brokers and Carat by 2-3 — one analyst's assumption moves those medians. FY-2025 columns also carry January and February 2026 revision dates, and Carat's FY-2027 column was last revised 2026-06-10 against 2026-07-24 for the group.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.